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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
The exponential rise in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies attracted a number of new traders who embarked on a buying spree – mainly purchasing cryptocurrencies using credit cards.
Following the huge decline in 2018, the top 5 credit card companies have either banned or have announced a ban on cryptocurrency purchases using credit cards.
As a result, late entrants to the rally, who had purchased cryptocurrency using borrowed money and are nursing losses of more than 50 percent will now be forced to square up their positions.
This is likely to result in another round of panic selling, which will shake out the weak hands. These lower levels will attract a new set of investors who believe in the technology and have been waiting to invest at the right opportunity.
Let us identify these lower levels that can attract buyers.
On February 02, Bitcoin saw some buying at the $8,000 levels. However, the pullback failed to reach our target objective of $10,700 for the short-term traders. We anticipated a pullback to the 20-day EMA, but in a selling frenzy, the pullbacks only lasted around 1-3 days. After a day of recovery, the cryptocurrency has turned down once again.
Today, the price has broken below the low formed on February 2. If the bears succeed in sustaining below the $8,000 levels, the BTC/USD pair is likely to slide down to $6,239, which is the pattern target from the break of the descending triangle.
Below this, the fall can extend to the $5,450 levels, which will effectively retrace 100 percent of the latest leg of the rally.
We believe that the panic selling to the above-mentioned levels offers a good buying opportunity to the long-term investors. However, investors should scale into the positions instead of buying all at once. We recommend buying about 30 to 40 percent of the desired allocation in the range of $5,500 to $5,800.
In our previous analysis, we expected some resistance at the $1,025 levels. On February 3, Ethereum turned down from a high of $999. We had also suggested long positions on a decline to the $770 to $820 levels with a stop loss of $700.
We still believe that the $770 to $785 range is a strong support zone for the ETH/USD pair, however, if this support zone breaks, a slide to $640 is likely.
The 78.6 percent retracement of the latest leg of the rally is at $611.34 levels. Hence, we foresee strong buying in the zone of $611.34 to $640.
However, the 20-day EMA and the 50-day EMA are likely to complete a bearish crossover, which is a negative development. Therefore we do not recommend any fresh trades.
We expected Bitcoin Cash to pull back to the downtrend line, but it turned down from $1,316.07 levels.
Today, it has broken below the $1,000 support. Now, it is likely to fall to the next critical support of $854.3135.
We do not find any signs of a bottom on the BCH/USD pair barring the fact that the RSI is close to entering into the oversold territory. Despite this, we want to see some buying emerge before making any trade on it.
Ripple is also retesting the lows formed on February 2. Compared to other cryptocurrencies, it has still not fallen below the February 2 low of $0.63252.
This points to likely exhaustion of selling in the XRP/USD pair. Also, the $0.61 is the final support. After this time, we may see a further fall to $0.24 levels.
It will become positive in the short-term after it breaks out of the downtrend line. Until then, all pullbacks are likely to be sold by the bears.
Stellar could not build on the sharp pullback of February 2. It has again broken below the support of $0.41 and is likely to retest the critical support of $0.296.
If this support breaks, the XLM/USD pair is likely to fall to the support line of the descending channel, which should offer strong support.
If this level also breaks, a fall to $0.1 might take place. We recommend waiting for the trend to change from down to up before initiating any fresh positions.
The pullback in Litecoin was stronger than the other cryptocurrencies because it reached close to the 20-day EMA. This shows interest in buying at the lower levels.
If the bulls accumulate the stock close to levels between $107 and $120 levels, it will point to a possible bottom. We might be interested in getting the LTC/USD pair if it breaks out of the $175 levels.
On the other hand, if the bears succeed in breaking below the lows of February 2, a fall to the final support of $84.708 is likely.
Due to this uncertainty, we do not recommend any long positions on Litecoin at the moment.
NEM is retesting the lows formed on February 2. If the bulls manage to hold the lows, a move towards the downtrend line might take place.
If the lows breakdown, we are most likely to see a fall to the next support level of $0.31672. The XEM/USD pair will become positive in the short-term once it sustains above the downtrend line.
Until today, NEO had been a relative outperformer as it was still trading above the 50-day SMA. Today, it has broken below the 50-day SMA, the critical support of $93.53 and the low formed February 2.
It still holds minor support at $86.143, below which it can fall to $64.83 levels. If this level also fails to hold, the NEO/USD pair can fall to $27.13, which is the target objective on the breakdown from the symmetrical triangle pattern.
Considering this recent weakness, we recommend holding any trades until further notice.
We had recommended a long position in EOS on dips to $9 with a stop loss of $7.4. Our profit objective was $14, but the pullback topped out at $11.25.
The EOS/USD pair has again declined towards the critical support zone of $6.5 to $7.4. We expect this level to hold, but it is prudent to not take any fresh positions until the charts forecast a short-term bottom.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange; the charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.